EraCrisisMeter
Risk Level of the Analysis System by Era of Change:
66/100
| # | Macro Indicator | Current | Delta vs Prev. |
| 1 | Difference in UST yield | 0.53 | 0.02 |
| 2 | US Dollar Index - DXY | 99.67 | 0.09 |
| 3 | VIX Index (S&P 500 Volatility) | 15.84 | 0.65 |
| 4 | Baltic Dry Index (BDI) | 2815 | -63 |
| 5 | Unemployment Claims | 209000 | 10000 |
| 6 | PMI - Business Activity Index | 55.60 | 0 |
| 7 | Federal Funds Rate | 3.63 | 0 |
| 8 | M2 Monetary Aggregate | 23,155.20 | 102.90 |
| 9 | Fed Balance Sheet (Quantitative Tightening) | 6759955 | 11388 |
| 10 | Bank Deposits (Reverse Repo) | 2,799.72 | 0 |
| 11 | Consumer Confidence | 49.50 | 4.70 |
| 12 | Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 332.81 | 0.25 |
| 13 | US Retail Sales | 763602 | -4951 |
| 14 | US Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) | 59.10 | 0 |
| 15 | Unemployment | 4.10 | -0.10 |
| 16 | Durable Goods Orders | 18,056.10 | 72.30 |
| 17 | US Building Permits | 1443 | 76 |
| 18 | SOFR-OIS Spread | 3.66 | 0.04 |
| 19 | High-Yield Bond Spreads (HY Spreads) | 2.70 | 0.03 |
| 20 | St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) | -0.85 | 0 |
| 21 | Loan Officer Survey | 0 | -8.10 |
| 22 | VVIX (Volatility Index) | 92.87 | -1.05 |
| 23 | Primary Dealer Positions (US Treasury bond positions) | 133099 | -8570 |
| 24 | China Credit Impulse | 4.70 | 11.79 |
Note: The service calculates the level of macroeconomic stress in the US economy using 24 key indicators. Each indicator is assigned a weight between 0 and 15 points, depending on its value and contribution to recession risk. The total amount (maximum 100) is a comprehensive assessment of current economic sustainability. The data is collected once a day after publication on official websites and is calculated by artificial intelligence online. The higher the number, the more likely it is that economic problems or growth will slow.
