Last recorded calculation: 2026-09-07 21:05:51 UTC. Value: 63.000 / 100.
Uses the latest available releases. Monthly and quarterly indicators do not change daily. Latest available China credit observation: 2025-10-01; combined with annual GDP. This input is lagged.
Last automatic health check: 2026-09-08T01:00:19+00:00. A health check is not a new calculation.Crisisometer: Global Systemic Risk Indicator
| # | Macro Indicator | Latest available | Delta vs Prev. |
| 1 | Difference in UST yield | 0.43 | 0.03 |
| 2 | US Dollar Index - DXY | 99.18 | 0.02 |
| 3 | VIX Index (S&P 500 Volatility) | 15.30 | 0.77 |
| 4 | Baltic Dry Index (BDI) | 3575 | -53 |
| 5 | Unemployment Claims | 206000 | 2000 |
| 6 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.60 | -1 |
| 7 | Federal Funds Rate | 3.63 | 0 |
| 8 | M2 Monetary Aggregate | 23218 | 102.80 |
| 9 | Fed Balance Sheet (Quantitative Tightening) | 6737204 | 6292 |
| 10 | Reserve balances at the Fed (USD billions) | 2,894.53 | -30.41 |
| 11 | Consumer Confidence | 55.20 | 5.70 |
| 12 | Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 332.81 | 0.25 |
| 13 | US Retail Sales | 763602 | -4470 |
| 14 | ISM Services Business Activity | 61.70 | 2.60 |
| 15 | Unemployment | 4.10 | 0 |
| 16 | Durable Goods Orders (USD millions) | 339392 | 3613 |
| 17 | US Building Permits | 1433 | 59 |
| 18 | SOFR − IORB spread (basis points) | 1 | 1 |
| 19 | High-Yield Bond Spreads (HY Spreads) | 2.65 | -0.01 |
| 20 | St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (version 4) | -0.85 | -0.04 |
| 21 | Loan Officer Survey | 0 | -8.10 |
| 22 | VVIX (Volatility Index) | 84.42 | 0.62 |
| 23 | Primary Dealer Positions (US Treasury bond positions) | 122038 | 5252 |
| 24 | China Credit Impulse | 4.70 | 1.89 |
Note: The service calculates the level of macroeconomic stress in the US economy using 24 key indicators. Each indicator is assigned a weight between 0 and 15 points, depending on its value and contribution to recession risk. The total amount (maximum 100) is a comprehensive assessment of current economic sustainability. The higher the number, the more likely it is that economic problems or growth will slow.
Data collection and AI calculation are scheduled once a day. The actual last calculation date and update status are shown above. Sources have different publication schedules; a health check is not a new calculation. A new score is not published while data requires review.
