EraCrisisMeter
Risk Level of the Analysis System by Era of Change:
66/100
| # | Macro Indicator | Current | Delta vs Prev. |
| 1 | Difference in UST yield | 0.37 | -0.04 |
| 2 | US Dollar Index - DXY | 100.98 | 0.22 |
| 3 | VIX Index (S&P 500 Volatility) | 18.65 | -0.12 |
| 4 | Baltic Dry Index (BDI) | 2671 | -81 |
| 5 | Unemployment Claims | 208000 | -7000 |
| 6 | PMI - Business Activity Index | 53.30 | 0 |
| 7 | Federal Funds Rate | 3.63 | 0 |
| 8 | M2 Monetary Aggregate | 23,052.30 | 247.80 |
| 9 | Fed Balance Sheet (Quantitative Tightening) | 6743028 | 7419 |
| 10 | Bank Deposits (Reverse Repo) | 2,799.72 | 0 |
| 11 | Consumer Confidence | 44.80 | -5 |
| 12 | Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 332.57 | -1.41 |
| 13 | US Retail Sales | 768553 | 4848 |
| 14 | US Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) | 55.40 | 0 |
| 15 | Unemployment | 4.20 | -0.10 |
| 16 | Durable Goods Orders | 17,983.80 | 51.20 |
| 17 | US Building Permits | 1367 | -46 |
| 18 | SOFR-OIS Spread | 3.59 | -0.03 |
| 19 | High-Yield Bond Spreads (HY Spreads) | 2.73 | 0.02 |
| 20 | St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) | -0.85 | 0 |
| 21 | Loan Officer Survey | 8.10 | 2.80 |
| 22 | VVIX (Volatility Index) | 102.82 | -2.05 |
| 23 | Primary Dealer Positions (US Treasury bond positions) | 96666 | -15979 |
| 24 | China Credit Impulse | 4.70 | 11.79 |
Note: The service calculates the level of macroeconomic stress in the US economy using 24 key indicators. Each indicator is assigned a weight between 0 and 15 points, depending on its value and contribution to recession risk. The total amount (maximum 100) is a comprehensive assessment of current economic sustainability. The data is collected once a day after publication on official websites and is calculated by artificial intelligence online. The higher the number, the more likely it is that economic problems or growth will slow.
