Political analytics and forecasts
A Leading Indicator of Escalation: What Would Signal the Start of a Direct Conflict with Europe
In the coming months, a key indicator for assessing geopolitical risks will be a qualitative shift in the statements made by senior Russian officials. To predict the next steps in the current conflict, it is necessary to closely monitor...
Macroanalytical Analysis: Russia’s Fuel Impasse (July–December 2026)
The current fuel crisis in Russia has entered a phase of systemic breakdown. As of early July 2026, restrictions at gas stations had spread to 61 regions, including Siberia and the Far East. Long lines on highways, a ban on filling jerry...
The Rotational Management System: Why Russia Has Historically Failed to Develop a National Elite
The question of “who rules the country” often boils down to a search for simple answers: studying genealogical records, looking for hidden surnames, or analyzing the ethnic composition of cabinets. However, to understand why state...
Rubicon 2026: Why Martial Law and Total Mobilization Are Issues for the Coming Weeks
We are on the brink of events that will forever change the reality we know. What now seems to many to be nothing more than background noise in the news risks turning into a veritable historical storm within the next month. The Russian...
Escalation by Design: Why the Standoff Between the U.S. and Iran Is Doomed
It would be a mistake to view the current escalation between Washington and Tehran as a chaotic exchange of blows. The dynamics we are observing are a classic macroeconomic and geopolitical strategy of testing pain thresholds. The parties...
The Perfect Corkscrew: Why the System Will Reach the Point of No Return by August 2026
The end of June 2026 laid bare a critical vulnerability in Russia’s power structure. Events that appear disparate at first glance—from statements by allies to anomalies in commodity markets—are coalescing into a clear trend:...
The Post-Truth Era: How U.S. Verbal Interventions Created the Most Dangerous Anomaly in the Oil Market
Throughout the history of global financial markets, there has always been a strict rule: prices are dictated by the balance of supply and demand, backed by hard statistics on tanker shipments and inventories. However, the events of June...
The Illusion of Diplomacy: How Voluntarily Ceding Ground Leads to a Protracted War
Our baseline geopolitical and macroeconomic forecast remains valid and is fully corroborated by current developments. However, the way this scenario is actually unfolding is striking in its institutional irrationality. The situation...
The Realm of Meaning: The Illusion of an Israeli-Iranian Agreement
The current document between the Trump administration and Iran is not a peace treaty, but merely a declaration of intent (the so-called “Islamabad Memorandum”), burdened with conditions that are knowingly impossible to fulfill. The...
Doomsday economics: Instructions for investment and sanctuary country selection for 2026-2030.
Macrostructure of the Decade: Cyclical Market Analysis from Euphoria to a New Reality
The current decade will go down in history as a period of unprecedented volatility and tectonic shifts in the global macroeconomic structure. Modeling of...
The Pentagon's information vacuum: why covering up losses in the Middle East is preparing a social explosion in the US
The current US military and political strategy is facing a systemic crisis that is carefully masked by official Washington. The White House administration (both Democrats and Donald Trump), together with the country's top military...
Global Conflict as a Driver of Growth: Why the U.S. is Putting the Economy on a War Footing
Pete Heckseth's recent official announcement of a radical increase in arms production and readiness to supply it on an unprecedented scale to all interested parties puts the final point in the formation of the new economic doctrine of the...
The crisis of late personalist autocracy: the transit model and the breakdown of intra-elite consensus
Modern political science classifies what is happening not as a unique phenomenon, but as a natural cycle of disintegration of personalist autocracy (according to Barbara Geddes' classification). Unlike military juntas or one-party...
The regime will ruin what nurtured it: The strategic caution trap
For decades, the foundation of the current Russian government has been political "sneakiness" - a strategy of avoiding sudden movements. Careful tightening of the screws, gradual and almost imperceptible tax increases, elimination of...
Information mirage: why Trump's 'seventh peace' with Iran is doomed to collide with reality
Over the past month and a half, Donald Trump has set a record of sorts by announcing the imminent end of the conflict with Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz at least six times. The other day, the White House went to the press...
Illusion of sustainability and geopolitical deadlock: hidden recession and risks of escalation
Over the past few quarters, the global macroeconomic landscape has shown clear signs of a systemic weakening of the U.S. position. The economy is facing structural barriers, and traditional methods of hedging domestic problems through...
