Cryptocurrency Market Overview 31.08.2023
News block
1. Probability of Bitcoin ETF Approval
Bloomberg analysts have raised the probability of approving a spot bitcoin ETF by the end of 2023 after Grayscale's recent victory over the SEC.
In an August 30 Twitter post, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that they had increased the odds to 75% from the previous 65% — thanks to the unanimity and determination of the judges of the US District Court of Appeals.
Within the next five days, the SEC must make decisions on a number of applications for launching ETFs from Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree and Valkyrie.
Few people will be surprised if the SEC postpones these applications for a later period. However, it remains likely that the SEC will give up and approve all spot ETFs on BTC.
2. Controversial digital Euro plan
German MP Stefan Berger will lead the development of new legislation designed to support the digital euro.
Berger has previously led the EU's important regulation of crypto asset markets (MiCA) through parliament and will now assume a similar role with regard to the central bank's digital currency (CBDC).
The European Central Bank has not yet made an official decision on the release of CBDC, but has invested significant resources in its technical planning.
At the same time, many members of the European Parliament are skeptical about the advantages of the digital euro: "The digital euro is a solution looking for a problem and potentially causes only problems ... it will only cause confusion among consumers and may undermine confidence in financial systems," said Michiel Hoogeven, a Dutch MEP.
3. The US Congress proposed to dismiss the head of the SEC
Warren Davidson, a member of the US House of Representatives, again called for the removal of Gary Gensler from the post of head of the SEC. The reason was the verdict of the court in favor of Grayscale on the conversion of GBTC issued by the company into an ETF contrary to the position of the regulator.
"Another proof that Gary Gensler's actions at the SEC are unlawful and arbitrary," the legislator commented.
This is the second consecutive lost case of the Commission against participants of the crypto industry. Earlier, Ripple achieved a "partial victory" in a lawsuit from 2020, in which the SEC accused the fintech company of distributing unregistered securities in the form of native platform tokens.
Now we observe that the closer the adoption of cryptocurrency legislation in the United States is, the less opportunities the SEC has to influence the development of the crypto industry.
Overview of the crypto market
🔸 The current capitalization of the crypto market is $1.129 trillion
🔸 Trading volume for the last day is $35.83 billion
🔸 BTC Dominance 47.0%
🔸 Fear and Greed Index:
- today 52, yesterday 49, a week ago 39
where, 0 is extreme fear (may be a sign that investors are too scared - it's often a good time to buy), and 100 is extreme greed (the market needs correction).
Over the past day, the value of the leading cryptocurrencies has decreased slightly. BTC continues to trade above $27k and ETH above $1.7k.
ADA, SOL and MATIC led the declines among the major altcoins, dropping almost 4% during the day, which negated most of the recent gains.
Although it is too early to say how stable the last price jump was, there are some signs that the market may show weakness, as the rally was accompanied by modest trading volumes on exchanges compared to other "mini-bull markets", reaching only a two-week high. The trading volume reflects the activity of market participants, so a modest volume figure may signal some weakness behind the growth on the news of Grayscale's victory.
"The wave of bitcoin spot ETF approvals could definitely be the bullish catalyst that the cryptocurrency market needs right now," says Klara Medeli, research director at Kaiko, adding that "we are still in the middle of a turbulent period for the industry, with quite a few bankruptcies and lawsuits going on."
At the same time, about 230 days remain before the next halving on the Bitcoin network. Already in the fourth quarter, this event will begin to attract much more media attention:
Number of long-term holders in leading blockchains
Interesting statistics were presented by the IntoTheBlock platform. Analysts estimated the change in the number of long-term holders in the leading blockchains. Result:
- Ethereum is leading, followed by Bitcoin.
- Cardano and Litecoin are also showing strong growth among long-term holders.
- Interestingly, Chainlink is the only top—level project that has a decrease in the number of long-term holders compared to last year.
Polygon Labs has introduced a set of tools for creating L2 networks on Ethereum
Polygon (MATIC) is one of the projects that the Era of Change monitors on a regular basis.
The other day, Polygon Labs presented a software suite of tools for the development and launch of second-level Ethereum networks (Layer-2/L2) based on zero-disclosure proof technology.
According to the description, Polygon CDK is an open source modular database. The solution allows any developer to launch their own L2 network, which will be connected to other chains via a common ZK bridge:
Polygon Labs positioned the solution as an evolution of the Supernets platform.
"All blockchains deployed using the Polygon CDK are compatible, have automatic access to the unified liquidity of all Polygon chains and one—click access to assets on Ethereum," the developers said.
Polygon CDK opens up a number of new advantages for blockchains:
- High modularity and customizability
- Seamless compatibility and overall liquidity
- The latest, future-oriented ZK technology
