MICEX Index – local overbought contributes to correction
"Expectations of the Fed's tight monetary policy are pushing oil prices down"
Expectations of a Fed rate cut this year are hiding day by day, which puts pressure on oil prices, which have decreased by 10% in a month and a half. Rising inflation in Russia will also prevent the Central Bank of the Russian Federation from lowering the rate, which puts pressure on the stock market.
Since the beginning of September 2023, the index has grown by 5%, which indicates a lack of interest among large investors who do not see the growth potential of the index of 30%+.
TAKE PROFIT
In early March, the MICEX index gained a foothold above the resistance level and continued to grow by the magnitude of the channel span. Since mid-April, the index has been in consolidation, made a "false breakdown" and went down. We believe that the MICEX index will decrease to the level of 3220 (-6.4% from the current level of 3440).
STOP LOSS
Do not forget about risk management and portfolio diversification. If the index is fixed above 3,530 points, then the forecast for a decline is canceled. The stop order[1] can be placed at the level of 3515 rubles (+2.2% from the current level of 3440).
[1] Risk management includes: setting a certain type of stop loss at certain levels, a position set method, a position reduction method, holding certain timings for decision-making and is of an individual nature, based on your personal risk profile. If you have any questions, you can contact our trader for advice (Portfolio Consultant package at the link https://eraperemen.info/priobresti/).
Disclamer. The analytics presented here are designed for people who have at least a basic understanding of the Russian financial market. If you have difficulties with the practical implementation of our recommendations, you can use the services of our specialists with the Portfolio Consultant package at the link: https://eraperemen.info/priobresti/
