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Forecasts and Analysis of Financial Markets

Rosneft – the sanctions fight continues

17.06.2024 09:45

NEWS/INVESTMENT EVENT "G7 countries will tighten sanctions against oil and metals from Russia" New "innovative" sanctions are gradually narrowing the range of possible circumventions of current restrictions without consequences for counterparties. The increase...

General market analysis 06/17/2024

17.06.2024 09:30

Index of greed/fear The main economic event on Friday was the publication of data on the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for June. The forecast assumed that it would...

Norilsk Nickel – a bouquet of risks

14.06.2024 10:00

Norilsk Nickel – a bouquet of risks NEWS/INVESTMENT EVENT "In 2023, sanctions restrictions and geopolitical challenges put significant pressure on Norilsk Nickel's financial performance "Long-term negative trends in nickel and palladium" A significant reduction in...

Nickel supplies from Russia may decrease

13.06.2024 10:00

NEWS/INVESTMENT EVENT   "Nickel and aluminum prices on the LME are likely to rise due to Russian sanctions"   The excessive production of nickel in the world and the low price of the metal allows...

EUR/USD – strong America and “muddy” Europe

12.06.2024 10:00

NEWS/INVESTMENT EVENT "The number of jobs in the US non-agricultural sector increased by 272,000 in May. This figure exceeded market expectations of 185,000 and April's growth of 165,000 by a wide margin" "Inflation...

20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) – strange optimism about long-term debt and +36.8% per annum

12.06.2024 10:00

Recent changes Since our last the report dated 08/28/2023 of the year, the share price of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, expressed in ounces of gold, fell by 21.8%. In a...

Gazpromneft – Gazprom's influence and lower oil prices

11.06.2024 10:00

NEWS/INVESTMENT EVENT "Gazprom Neft will switch to a management model similar to the parent company from April 5" Gazprom has a reputation for not being the most efficient business. Dividends and increasing shareholder...

Surgutneftegaz JSC is at the mercy of speculators

10.06.2024 10:00

"Tax innovations and falling oil prices will not reduce dividends." The financial condition of Surgutneftegaz has a negligible impact on the quotations of the company's ordinary shares, since no dividends are actually...

1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) — the forecast is almost fulfilled, a new forecast and +27.5% per annum

10.06.2024 10:00

Recent changes Since our last the report dated 08/28/2023 of the year, the share price of iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY), expressed in ounces of gold, fell by 17.2%. In a...

Akron – rising costs and lower product prices

07.06.2024 10:00

"Falling fertilizer prices in the world and rising costs within the country"   Low natural gas prices in the world reduce the costs of fertilizer producers, which has a downward impact on the...

NLMK – sale of low-margin assets

06.06.2024 10:00

NEWS/INVESTMENT EVENT   "Cleveland-Cliffs is in talks to buy NLMK's American plants, Bloomberg writes" The imposition of duties on slabs from the American side and geopolitical tensions have made the company's plants in the...

MMK fittings are getting more expensive

05.06.2024 10:22

NEWS/INVESTMENT EVENT   "Rebar prices have increased by 18% since the beginning of the year" (million rubles) 2023 2022 2021 2020 P/E 4,93 5,25 3,39 14,3 Revenue 763 400 699 800 873 200 460 200 Net profit 118 200 70 200 229 300 43 700 Dividends (RUB) 0,0 0,00 8,9 4,5   The growth of industry and the construction sector...

Intuit (INTU) – exit of T. Rowe Price Group and +27.2% per annum

05.06.2024 10:00

Recent changes Since our last the report dated 11/17/2023 of the year, the company's shares in gold fell by 12.8%. This could bring up to 27.2% per annum to those who shared...

MOEXOG (Oil and Gas Index) – falling oil prices and OPEC caution

04.06.2024 12:31

"Oil continues to fall on fears of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve" "OPEC+ has agreed to extend collective production cuts until 2025" The lack of an expected result in combating...

Turkey 10-year government Bonds (TR10) – rebound targets achieved. 69.9% per annum and new goals

03.06.2024 10:00

Recent changes Since our last the report dated 30.08.2023 of the year, the price of ten-year government bonds of Turkey (Turkey 10 Year Government Bonds), expressed in gold, has hardly changed. However,...

MMVB – the foreign policy situation is getting worse, taxes are rising

03.06.2024 09:25

"The largest tax reform has begun in Russia" "The United States has allowed Ukraine to hit certain targets in Russia with American weapons" The planned changes in the tax system have puzzled the...

Ozon – taxes and calculations add risks

31.05.2024 11:00

NEWS / INVESTMENT EVENT "The largest tax reform has begun in Russia" "More and more Chinese banks stop accepting payments in yuan from Russia" As a result of the tax reform, the purchasing power...

Turkey 3-year government bonds (TR03) – forecast fulfilled. 313.7% per annum and new goals

31.05.2024 10:00

Recent changes Since our last the report dated 30.08.2023 of the year, the price of three-year government bonds of Turkey (Turkey 3 Year Government Bonds), expressed in gold, fell by 54.3%. In the...

General market analysis 05/31/2024

31.05.2024 09:30

Greed/fear index The main economic event, of course, was the publication of the second preliminary data on the dynamics of US GDP in the 1st quarter. The forecast assumed that GDP would...

Phosagro – increased tax burden and lower prices for phosphorus fertilizers

30.05.2024 11:12

NEWS/INVESTMENT EVENT "The Ministry of Finance has proposed to increase the MET for producers of mineral fertilizers by 2 times" Lower prices for phosphorus fertilizers and an increase in the tax burden can...