Political analytics and forecasts
may 15: Postponed finale. Why Trump and Xi's second attempt will be their last
The upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15, 2026 is not a new beginning, but a painful return to thwarted negotiations. We recall that this visit was planned back at the beginning of the year...
Gold as an Ultimatum Asset: Out of System and Out of Control
With the impending transition to a mobilized economy and the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), traditional financial instruments - stocks, bonds and fiat deposits - are transformed into assets with total counterparty...
The decline of the hegemon: Economic deadlock and US geopolitical retreat
Over the past few years, the United States of America has shown clear signs of entering an active phase of systemic destruction. The latest marker of this process is the realization by American society of the failure of attempts at...
Middle East zugzwang: why Trump's 'end of war' is the beginning of phase two
Exactly two months ago, we predicted that by early May the first phase of confrontation in the region would come to its logical conclusion. The events of May 1, 2026 confirmed this scenario with mathematical precision. Donald Trump sent a...
Russian air defense as an imitation, an arsenal without "teeth", and "victory" is not the goal
Introduction
Regular drone raids on Russian regions and selective effectiveness of interceptions show that the countermeasures system works reactively. At the same time, Russia continues to rely on an outdated missile stockpile, without...
The World on the Threshold of a New War: Russia's Isolation as a Harbinger of Global Conflict
Closing borders and political isolation
The events of recent months show a growing trend: Poland is closing its borders to Russian citizens, and the European Union is discussing a complete ban on Russians, including tourists. This looks...
Digital freedom vs. state control: a new arena of global clashes
The events of recent months, be it the clashes in Nepal or the outbreak of protests in Turkey, clearly demonstrate that the digital space is no longer just a sphere of technology. It has become a political arena where the future of both...
"Civilizational foundations and modern laws: what we see in the mirror of history"
Introduction
If we imagine that the greatest thinkers, religious leaders and political figures of the last three thousand years were to become our contemporaries, we would inevitably face the question: how would their ideas relate to the...
Russia-China visa-free travel: an instrument of friendship or a new form of expansion?
Introduction
From September 15, Russia and China will launch a visa-free travel regime for up to 30 days. The official pitch is to strengthen friendship and develop tourism. But the experience of other countries where China came through...
The recession in the Russian economy has begun. Will there be a revolution?
Recession is a word that economists use cautiously, because it means not just a "slowdown in growth" but a sustained downturn. The classic definition is two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. But in reality, recession manifests itself...
"China's Satellite Organization": a parade of addicts in Tianjin
Another SCO summit took place in Tianjin. Formally - a meeting for the sake of "peace, stability and cooperation". In reality, it is a parade of states that in one way or another depend on China. This is not the "Shanghai Cooperation...
Moscow and the regions: a new phase of "centralization at the expense of the periphery"
1. Historical Model: Moscow vs. Moscow Region
Over the past decades, Moscow has grown and prospered, actually "sucking" resources from the Moscow region.
People: residents of the region traveled en masse to work in the capital, leaving...
When the authorities bring troops into cities: causes and consequences
Introduction
The introduction of troops into the streets of Russian cities is an extreme step of the authorities. It does not arise "out of nowhere," but becomes a continuation of a systemic crisis. It is important to understand why the...
