Report of the investment and analytical agency Era of Change for 4 months of 2025 on realized forecasts (statement)
The average return on our short-term forecasts from 09/01/2025 to 04/30/2025 was 263%per annum.
Why annualized? Because if the deal was profitable, it is important to free up funds for new investments as soon as possible. If the deal made a 10% return in 5 days, it is much more efficient than in 2 months. Because that's the time the money is closed in a profitable but overextended idea.
The same applies to losing trades. If you make a lot of trades with short stop closes, like -1%, every other day, you will lose half of your portfolio in 50 trading days. But if the stop is triggered after 5 days, you will lose half of your portfolio in 250 trading days.
Why are there so many stops? Because the manager's task is to limit losses and let profits flow. Many trades closed by stops were profitable in the end. But we can't let money get stuck in those trades for long. Because that reduces the average return on investment (see first paragraph).
Notice the large skew in the returns of profitable trades versus unprofitable trades. That's what we're working on. The average return of profitable trades is 5.3% (728% p.a.), while the average loss of unprofitable trades is 1.7% (160% p.a.). At the same time, the number of profitable deals was higher than the number of unprofitable ones. So for 4 months of 2025 there were 33 (52.4%) profitable deals and 30 (47.6%) unprofitable ones.
Is it much 263% per annum in rubles? Yes, it is a lot. For example, since 09.01.01.2025 the ruble has strengthened against the dollar from 104.48 to 81.53. I.e. the strategy "rubles under the mattress" has brought profit of 28.1% or 84.3% per annum in dollars and zero profitability in rubles. Our forecasts taking into account ruble strengthening could bring about 347.3% p.a. (263%+84.3%) in dollars.
The MosBirch index of full gross yield (MCFTR), which reflects the change in the total value of the prices of Russian shares included in the calculation of the MosBirch index, including dividend payments and excluding taxation of income in rubles, rose from 7021.1 to 7548.62 points, i.e. showed a yield of +7.5% or +22.5% per annum in rubles.
And a ruble deposit, if invested at the 2025 refinancing rate of 21.0% per annum, would be 12.5 times less profitable than our forecasts.
Disclamer. Past performance does not guarantee the same return in the future, which may differ either downward or upward. Also, the analytics presented here are intended for people who have at least a basic understanding of the Russian financial market. If you have difficulties with the practical implementation of our recommendations, you can use the services of our specialists with the package "Portfolio Consultant" at the link: https://eraperemen.info/priobresti/
Explanation of returns in the report:
We use different approaches to calculating returns so that you can understand what result could be obtained with different capital utilization strategies:
1. +83.42% is the total return if you used a fixed amount (e.g. 100,000 ₽) per trade and did not reinvest the profit.
That is, you invested the same amount, withdrew the profit after each trade, and continued trading the same 100,000 ₽. This is a simple and conservative approach.
2. +125.7% is the return if you shifted capital completely from trade to trade.
That is, you started with 100,000 ₽ and each next trade was opened for the amount with the profit of the previous one. This variant reflects real sequential trading on the dates of trades, as it would be in life.
3. 263% APR is a theoretical extrapolation based on the average profitability of deals.
This figure is obtained by taking the average yield of a single trade and multiplying it by the notional number of trades per year. This is a model calculation, not an actual financial result. It is needed to understand what efficiency can be during the year, if the market allows to continue working in the same rhythm and with the same accuracy.
