Cryptocurrency Market Overview 12.10.2023
News block
1. Signs of Progress in Launching a Cellular Bitcoin ETF
ARK Invest and 21Shares have made edits to their application to launch a spot bitcoin ETF. The amended application dated October 11 added additional information on how the fund will store assets and determine their value.
Bloomberg senior analyst Eric Balchunas: "This means that ARK has received the SEC's comments and dealt with them, and now has returned the ball to the SEC's side. In my opinion, this is a good sign and significant progress."
2. ETH could reach $8000 by the end of 2026
Ethereum (ETH), the second largest cryptocurrency, could grow in price more than fivefold by the end of 2026, according to the latest forecast of the global bank Standard Chartered.
The head of StanChart FX Research Jeff Kendrick noted that the price of $8000 can be achieved over the next two years, as the asset is increasingly used in smart contracts, games, as well as in the tokenization of traditional assets.
"We view the $8000 level as a stepping stone to our long–term "structural" valuation of ETH at $26,000—$35,000," wrote Kendrick, who heads the bank's digital asset research.
The "structural" estimate, according to StanChart FX Research, assumes future ETH use cases and revenue streams that have not yet emerged and is calculated "for a very long-term perspective, approximately until 2040".
3. JPMorgan's tokenization platform
On October 11, the US banking giant JPMorgan introduced its own blockchain—based tokenization application - Tokenized Col Lateral Network (TCN). The first client of the TCN platform was BlackRock, the largest asset manager.
During the transaction between JPMorgan and BlackRock, shares of one money market fund were converted into digital tokens on the TCN platform, which were then transferred to Barclays Bank as collateral for over-the-counter derivatives exchange.
The first internal testing of TCN was conducted by JPMorgan back in May 2022. The platform itself was launched to optimize and scale the process of traditional calculations. The use of distributed registry technology has made this process faster, safer and more efficient.
According to Tyrone Lobban, head of Onyx Digital Assets at JPMorgan, the new TCN platform allows you to create, transfer and settle on tokenized traditional assets. It also allows you to move collateral almost instantly, unlike earlier methods.
Overview of the crypto market
🔸 The current capitalization of the crypto market is $1.087 trillion
🔸 Trading volume for the last day is $35.28 billion
🔸 BTC dominance 48.1%
🔸 Fear and greed index:
- today 45, yesterday 47, a week ago 50
where 0 is extreme fear (may be a sign that investors are too scared - it's often a good time to buy), and 100 is extreme greed (the market needs correction).
Bitcoin fell below $27,000 on Wednesday for the first time since the beginning of the month, as a four-day rally in stocks and three consecutive days of falling bond yields failed to arouse buyers' interest in the cryptocurrency.
According to CoinGlass, traders who placed bets on higher prices with long positions lost $50 million during yesterday. The amount of liquidations for BTC amounted to $22.5 million, which was the second largest indicator this month.
The fall in the value of cryptocurrencies occurred against the background of the growth of traditional markets: yesterday the Nasdaq added 0.7%, and the S&P 500 rose by 0.4%. At the same time, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds decreased by 10 basis points to 4.56%.
Some analysts have noted the amazing stability of BTC in recent weeks amid the fall of US stocks and the collapse of the bond market. However, this trend seems to have come to naught after the cryptocurrency failed to overcome strong resistance at around $28,000.
BTC could potentially find support at the upper limit of its summer downtrend, otherwise it could fall below to the $24,000-25,000 block:
What trends are currently prevailing in the crypto market?
The main thing that characterizes the crypto market today is decreasing capital flows, low network activity and the resilience of long—term holders (HODL).
Currently, the number of BTC on the wallets of long-term holders has reached a new historical maximum of 14.859 million coins, which is 76.1% of the total number of coins in circulation. These coins have not been moved from their addresses for the last 5 months or more:
At the same time, the "Hot Offer" indicator, which represents the volume of coins with which transactions were made over the past week, is significantly below its average level — 0.5SD. And this suggests that the current liquidity conditions remain the same as in the bear markets of 2014-2015 and 2018-2019:
The volume of the illiquid BTC supply is also growing, moving in the opposite direction to the aggregate exchange balances. This discrepancy is another indication that coins continue to be withdrawn from exchanges and moved to illiquid wallets belonging to hodlers, where they mature to the status of a long-term holder.:
At the same time, the average profit or loss realized per BTC coin also reached the minimum of the cycle, which confirms the observation that most of the traded coins last moved at the same price as today.
Since most coins move in close proximity to their original value, this describes a market in which active participants are traders fighting for a slightly better position.
All of the above indicators largely emphasize the current apathy that the crypto market is currently experiencing.
