RGBI – Ruble risks are growing
"The current account surplus of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation decreased 4.7 times in 2023"
A significant decrease in the balance of payments account surplus has a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate and increases the risks of investing in ruble assets. The downward dynamics of the RGBI index indicates the continuation of the tight monetary policy of the Central Bank in order to stabilize the exchange rate and combat inflation.
TAKE PROFIT
Against the background of the presidential decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings, the RGBI index suspended its decline and moved into lateral consolidation. As a result, a triangle was formed, from which a downward exit followed. In our opinion, we should expect further movement of the index to the level of 115, which implies a decrease of 3% from the current level of 199.25.
STOP LOSS
Do not forget about risk management. A significant increase in oil prices while maintaining oil sales volumes can restore investors' faith in the ruble's prospects and support the index.
If the price is fixed above 121 points, then the forecast of a decline in the index is canceled.
The stop order[1] can be placed at 120.5. (1.1% of the current level of 119.25).
[1] Risk management includes: setting a certain type of stop loss at certain levels, a position set method, a position reduction method, holding certain timings for decision-making and is of an individual nature, based on your personal risk profile. If you have any questions, you can contact our trader for advice (Portfolio Consultant package at the link https://eraperemen.info/priobresti/).
Disclamer. The analytics presented here are designed for people who have at least a basic understanding of the Russian financial market. If you have difficulties with the practical implementation of our recommendations, you can use the services of our specialists with the Portfolio Consultant package at the link: https://eraperemen.info/priobresti/
