Cryptocurrency Market Overview 09/28/2023
News block
1. Defeat of Gary Gensler in Congress
Yesterday, on September 27, the head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was again in front of lawmakers at a scheduled hearing where his agency's oversight of the markets was discussed.
There was a lot of criticism against the head of the Commission. And U.S. Representative Warren Davidson accused Gary Gensler of abusing his role as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and said he hoped the Biden administration would fire him.
"I'd like the Biden administration to say you're fired," Davidson said.
Recently, things have been going extremely badly for the SEC — the Commission lost the Ripple court, lost the Grayscale court, its work causes a lot of criticism in Congress. At the same time, it should be understood that the SEC is a regulator that monitors compliance with the rules, but does not establish them. Laws are passed by Congress and as legislators decide, so it will be. The SEC has made a lot of noise in the crypto industry over the past 1.5 years, which has caused a lot of discontent in its address.
In the current conditions, the Commission will not be able to resist the approval of spot crypto-ETFs for a long time.
2. Binance's departure from Russia
Yesterday, the Binance crypto exchange announced the withdrawal from Russia and the sale of the Russian business to CommEX.
The official press release said that the planned transition of existing users to another platform will take up to one year. All assets of current Russian users are safe and securely protected.
At the same time, a number of experts noted that this is very similar to the departure of Binance from the Netherlands, when local users began to be transferred to the "new" crypto exchange Coinmerce.
What is known about CommEX?
- Internal CommEX API codes are the same as Binance;
- The source code of Binance and CommEX sites have similarities;
- The interface and terms of service are identical;
- The company is registered in Seychelles and is focused on customers from Asia and CIS countries;
- There is a 25% discount on the commission when trading BNB.
CommEX — just a screen?
Overview of the crypto market
🔸 The current capitalization of the crypto market is $1.093 trillion
🔸 Trading volume for the last day is $42.24 billion
🔸 BTC dominance 47.1%
🔸 Fear and greed index:
- today 46, yesterday 44 a week ago 43
where 0 is extreme fear (may be a sign that investors are too scared - often it's a good time to buy), and 100 is extreme greed (the market needs correction).
The value of the main cryptocurrencies has increased slightly over the past 24 hours. And although interest rates continue to rise, which theoretically should put pressure on the price of BTC, some analysts argue that the typical link between interest rates and BTC is being destroyed. So in his recent speech, Mark Yusko, investment director at Morgan Creek Capital Management, said that now more and more attention will be focused on the next halving, which is just over 200 days away (expected in April 2024).
Halving will lead to the fact that the reward of miners for adding a new block to the Bitcoin network will be reduced by half, from the current 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This will cause a reduction in the income of miners by almost half, which is likely to cause serious stress in the industry if the price of BTC does not rise in the near future.
What is the cost of mining one bitcoin now?
Glassnode analysts used several models to estimate the average cost of mining one bitcoin. So based on a model that takes into account the market capitalization of the first cryptocurrency and the complexity of the network (shows how many times on average miners have to calculate the hash function value to find a cryptocurrency block), they determined that the cost is $24.3k (which is very close to the current spot price):
Another approach to estimating the cost of BTC mining takes into account the ratio of emissions to network complexity. According to this model, the cost of one bitcoin for the most efficient miners is about $15.1k. However, after halving, it will increase to $30.2k (purple curve):
Thus, if the price of BTC does not start to rise in the near future, then mining companies will have serious problems with the profitability of their business.
