Political analytics and forecasts
After banks, real estate, insurance, and stablecoins, the last remaining payment instrument is physical gold. And it, too, is ceasing to function as a universal pass. As of September 1, Russia has restricted the export of gold bars and...
Political analytics and forecasts
USDT and USDC turned out not to be freely available funds, but rather a digital dollar with a freeze button. Tether has already frozen $5.7 billion across 9,500 addresses, and now the freeze takes effect within hours of being added to the...
Political analytics and forecasts
It is not aircraft carriers or customs that bring global trade to a halt. It is the underwriter’s signature in London: without an insurance policy, a ship will not dock, and a truck will not cross the border. We’ll break down how this...
Political analytics and forecasts
One and a half thousand drones in a single night, the largest attack on Moscow since 2022, and the Kremlin’s promise to retaliate. On the same day, the DPR gives “United Russia” more than 80% of the vote, while the Moscow Exchange Index...
Political analytics and forecasts
The accounts have already been audited, and so have the companies. What remains is the concrete reality: an apartment by the sea that can’t be shut down with the click of a mouse. Starting July 10, 2026, the EU will open access to...
Political analytics and forecasts
For the first time in this phase of the war, the Houthis have reached Riyadh; Aramco has suspended shipments to European refineries for a month; and the Mecca Pact with Turkey and Pakistan is facing its first test in combat. We answer the...
Political analytics and forecasts
American neobanks are closing accounts held by companies with foreign owners. The reason isn’t data leaks or a conspiracy: the regulator has shifted responsibility for the customer from the fintech company to the sponsoring bank, and the...
Political analytics and forecasts
The House of Representatives passed the Graham Act: tariffs of up to 500% on Russian goods and up to 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of our oil. Four days ago, we wrote that the noose is tightening not at the borders, but in the...
Political analytics and forecasts
A secret isn’t something mystical—it’s an asset. While some people are trying to decipher the symbols on magazine covers, others are calmly figuring out who got the money. We’ll break down the mechanics of information inequality and the...
Political analytics and forecasts
1.5 million new soldiers—that’s not a slogan, but a quantifiable goal. Formally speaking, the country has enough men to meet this goal. What it lacks is money and manpower. We examined three constraints: demographics, the contract soldier...
Political analytics and forecasts
A trade bridge between geopolitical blocs may remain open on the map—but cease to function within the banking system. Why Turkey, the UAE, and Central Asia risk paying the price for their multi-vector approach, and what this means for...
Political analytics and forecasts
AI promises to free humans from routine tasks. But what will happen if, along with routine tasks, we hand over to it our ability to understand the world? An original scenario spanning twenty years: from cognitive stratification to an...
Political analytics and forecasts
We warned that the Houthis would advance to Bab el-Mandeb and that oil prices would reach $110. That’s exactly what happened. But buying into the war after such a price spike is a mistake. Our next move is the opposite: first,...
Political analytics and forecasts
Control technologies already exist individually: biometrics, software-defined transportation, digital currency, automated access to services, and reliance on cloud infrastructure. The main risk for 2027–2030 is their integration into a...
Political analytics and forecasts
CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow sparked a wave of rumors about an imminent peace agreement. We’ll examine why this contact is more likely a direct clarification of red lines than the start of a peace process, and why the...
Отчет «Эры Перемен» за май—август 2026 года: 298 рыночных идей, 235 закрытых сценариев и +580,41% Σ P&L. В приложении — обезличенная построчная ведомость с прямыми ссылками на исходные публикации. Statement · май—август 2026 Четыре...
Political analytics and forecasts
Decree No. 604 does not formally nationalize private companies. However, it authorizes the transfer of de facto control over assets, shares, and property rights to the state or another designated administrator—without a time limit...
Political analytics and forecasts
Reports of serious complications and dog deaths following vaccination, the recall of the 20th batch of “Multikana-8,” and the suspension of distribution of several other batches have turned this veterinary incident into a test for the...
Political analytics and forecasts
War is entering a jet-powered phase: new strike UAVs are reducing air defense reaction times and raising the cost of interception. The real turning point is not a single weapon, but the massive combination of drones, missiles, aerial...
Political analytics and forecasts
The global market isn’t disappearing, but price no longer guarantees access. MacroGuard analyzes how the energy, food, and infrastructure crises will unfold differently in Russia, the U.S., Europe, Turkey, Asia, and other regions. Inside:...
