Political analytics and forecasts
Once again, there’s a spirit of peace in the air around the White House. Whitcoff and Kushner are shuttling between capitals, Qatari mediators have been meeting with the Iranians for three days, and the president himself says there’s no...
Political analytics and forecasts
More than nine years ago—first in private discussions on social media, and later publicly—I made a prediction that many at the time considered far too radical. A real transfer of power in Russia will begin only when drunken sailors with...
Political analytics and forecasts
“Let your sickle go forth and reap… for the harvest on earth is ripe.” This is from the Book of Revelation by John the Theologian, chapter fourteen. Two thousand years ago, this image referred to the end of time. Today, it is echoed by...
Political analytics and forecasts
On November 3, Americans will go to the polls to elect Congress. What will be decided on that day is not the composition of Congress. The final restriction will be lifted on a military operation that has been underway for eight months and...
Political analytics and forecasts
In 21st-century world politics, a dangerous structural breakdown is becoming increasingly apparent: the biological and political aging of leaders, compounded by the erosion of mechanisms for the transfer of power. Gerontocracy—the rule of...
Political analytics and forecasts
Each incident is explained to us separately. In Nepal—a ban on social media. In Morocco—the deaths of eight women in childbirth at a single hospital. In Peru—corruption in Congress. In Europe—migrants. Every country has its own reason, its...
Political analytics and forecasts
There are statements that are significant not for their content, but for who makes them and when. On October 22, the Israeli prime minister appeared on a business news channel and asked for a plan to be drawn up to circumvent international...
Political analytics and forecasts
The picture over the past two weeks looks like a move toward peace. A phone call, a fuel deal, a special envoy in St. Petersburg, talks of a ceasefire. All of this paints a convenient picture: Trump applied pressure, the sides are sitting...
Political analytics and forecasts
On the air, this is presented as protests against budget cuts. Schoolchildren, labor unions, wages, fuel prices. The surface level is described correctly—and yet it completely obscures the essence of the matter. What began in Europe this...
Political analytics and forecasts
I received a summons. Not for my son, nor for my nephew of draft age—but for me, a man who served a long time ago and has been quietly listed in the reserves all these years. The wording is standard: to appear for the verification of...
Political analytics and forecasts
Europe’s political landscape is in turmoil. Mass protests in Paris, strikes in a number of other European capitals, and electoral upheavals such as the success of “Alternative for Germany” in regional elections—all these are symptoms of a...
Political analytics and forecasts
Over the course of a week, we’ve witnessed events that are usually spread out across various news stories: a diesel deal, the “energy truce” that Kyiv learned about from a news article, a three-day pause in the attacks—and Zelenskyy’s...
Political analytics and forecasts
I’m writing to you not as an editorial team, but personally—because this is about something that will affect everyone who uses the internet in Russia. It’s better to find out about this in advance than when you urgently need to log in to...
Political analytics and forecasts
In just one day, two of our predictions came true—the February one and the September one. In Riyadh, a rocket struck the passenger terminal: twelve dead, three hundred and nine wounded. In Washington, Trump announced an “energy truce”...
Political analytics and forecasts
Trump asked Putin for diesel fuel. Putin agreed. A day later, the U.S. Treasury Department lifted the restrictions. Optimists are already talking about a détente and imminent peace. Let’s break down what’s actually on the table—and why...
Political analytics and forecasts
When I wrote that emigrants would save Russia, almost everyone misunderstood me. They assumed I was talking about money and labor. But I was talking about something else—about people who have learned not to be afraid. The time has come to...
Political analytics and forecasts
On the night of October 8, a drone struck the Yandex data center in Sasovo, Ryazan Region. A fire broke out, and operations at the site have been completely suspended. There were no injuries. The company stated that it cannot yet confirm...
Political analytics and forecasts
The escape plan seems reasonable. City life is all about dependence: water from the tap, heat on a schedule, money from a card, and food from chain stores that rely on deliveries. The countryside is autonomy: your own well, your own...
Political analytics and forecasts
MAIN THESIS Failures are no longer isolated incidents. This is a sign of a systemic problem, not a random one A single failure is a coincidence. A series of failures of the same type within a single year is a characteristic of the system....
Political analytics and forecasts
Dear customers and subscribers! Banks in Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian countries have begun to massively reject SWIFT transfers to and from Russian citizens. Rejections are occurring even in cases where the connection to Russia is...
