Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
Diesel in Exchange for Tehran: What Trump Actually Bought from Putin
Trump asked for diesel—Putin agreed, and a day later the U.S. Treasury Department lifted the restrictions. People are talking about a détente. In reality, it’s a trade-off in terms of timing: the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Brent is above 104, gasoline is at four and a half dollars, and there are three weeks until the congressional elections. I’m analyzing what was paid for with fuel, why the plan for strikes against Iran is already in place, and which two dates reveal the true intent behind the deal.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.