Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today Rosstat reported late last night the first weekly deflation since August: prices fell by 0.04% from October 27 to November 2, and annual inflation slowed to 6.95%. According to Interfax, the data was...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Shaping the Agenda Today A day later, the market staged a “peace rally”: U.S. indices plummeted by 3.4–5.5%, Brent crude returned to $100, and the Russian market is rising against this backdrop. According to Interfax, Friday’s...
Political analytics and forecasts
Once again, there’s a spirit of peace in the air around the White House. Whitcoff and Kushner are shuttling between capitals, Qatari mediators have been meeting with the Iranians for three days, and the president himself says there’s no...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Shaping the Agenda Today The Russian market was the first to react to the U.S. election: indices down 0.9%, oil stocks down as much as 3.9%, and oil continues to fall after an 8% plunge. According to Interfax, Thursday’s morning...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Shaping the Agenda Today The Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress; Trump acknowledged the result and cited the reasons: gas prices and the war in Iran. According to Bloomberg, the Democrats gained control of the...
Political analytics and forecasts
More than nine years ago—first in private discussions on social media, and later publicly—I made a prediction that many at the time considered far too radical. A real transfer of power in Russia will begin only when drunken sailors with...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Shaping the Agenda Today Saudi Aramco produced 17% less but earned 35% more, while the IEA wrote off 150 billion cubic meters of gas through 2030. According to Interfax, Saudi Aramco’s net profit for the third quarter totaled 135.94...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Shaping the Agenda Today Oil prices fell 6% on hopes for peace, while two tankers are on fire in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Interfax, as of 5:36 p.m. Moscow time, January Brent futures on ICE were down $7.1 (6.26%) to...
Political analytics and forecasts
“Let your sickle go forth and reap… for the harvest on earth is ripe.” This is from the Book of Revelation by John the Theologian, chapter fourteen. Two thousand years ago, this image referred to the end of time. Today, it is echoed by...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today Russia struck two dry cargo ships carrying supplies for the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Odessa over the past 24 hours. According to Interfax, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, drones struck a vessel 69...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today The U.S. has warned its allies in the Persian Gulf of a possible series of strikes against Iran on November 4. According to Interfax, citing the American television channel MS NOW, the Trump administration...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's on the agenda today Binance reported a theft of $6.3 billion: the largest hack in the history of the crypto industry. According to Bloomberg and DW, the world’s largest crypto exchange acknowledged a cyberattack, the damage from...
Political analytics and forecasts
On November 3, Americans will go to the polls to elect Congress. What will be decided on that day is not the composition of Congress. The final restriction will be lifted on a military operation that has been underway for eight months and...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today The State Duma passed the first reading of a budget-related bill on tax changes for the next three years. According to TASS, the financial and economic justification indicates that simply adjusting the state...
Political analytics and forecasts
In 21st-century world politics, a dangerous structural breakdown is becoming increasingly apparent: the biological and political aging of leaders, compounded by the erosion of mechanisms for the transfer of power. Gerontocracy—the rule of...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today The Bank of Russia has closed a loophole involving “perpetual” auto loans: Starting in the first quarter of 2027, the issuance of targeted auto loans with terms exceeding 7 years will be limited to 20% of...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today Israel is seeing record voter turnout: by 10:00 a.m., turnout for the Knesset elections stood at 16.7%, the highest since 1981; by midday, 3.29 million people had cast their ballots. According to data from...
Political analytics and forecasts
Each incident is explained to us separately. In Nepal—a ban on social media. In Morocco—the deaths of eight women in childbirth at a single hospital. In Peru—corruption in Congress. In Europe—migrants. Every country has its own reason, its...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today Rystad Energy: Global LNG importers will pay at least $39 billion more this year and receive 60.7 million metric tons less gas. According to the analytics firm, the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today Putin: Russia’s external debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 2.6%, and the national debt totals 17.5%. The president cited these figures on Sunday, and TASS featured them in its headline of the day. This should be...
