Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
Evening Political Roundup, November 4, 2026
The Democrats took control of both houses of Congress; Trump acknowledged the result and cited the reasons himself: gas prices and the war in Iran. The market reacted to the results in a single trading session: oil down 12% for the week, Brent below $100 for the first time since October 7, Bitcoin back down to $80,000, and Tehran thanking American voters. We’ll break down why the war premium has begun to deflate for political reasons, what this means for the Russian budget, and why the UN is already preparing a replacement for it ahead of COP31.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.
