The Law of the Coiled Spring: Why the Transfer of Power Will Begin with Chaos and End in a New Dictatorship

More than nine years ago, I put forward a prediction about how power would actually change hands in Russia. At the time, it was considered too radical. Today, I stand by every word—and I’ll explain why. Political scientists are accustomed to mapping out three distinct paths following a long reign and debating which one the country will take. This is a mistake. In the Russian reality, there will be no choice to make—the paths will turn out to be not a fork in the road, but a single route. The only question is in what order and at what cost. The Kremlin has long provided for an emergency exit—the framework was laid out in law several years ago. But any emergency exit comes with a condition: it must be used in time. And this is precisely where the factor that currently consumes more than a third of the country’s total expenditures comes into play. Let’s examine why there won’t be a smooth transfer of power, where the new system will begin, and why the clock by which it measures time is ticking faster than the front lines.