Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
Evening Political Roundup, November 2, 2026
Oil prices fell 6% overnight in response to a draft of Iran’s proposal, which Washington had only just received, while two tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz on the same day. Serbia elected a parliament in which the opposition secured 53% of the vote; Kazakhstan decided to stockpile uranium rather than sell it; Aramco acquired half of the national AI champion; and Putin expanded the staff of the Ministry of Emergency Situations. We’ll break down why all of this is part of a single process: countries are preparing for prolonged instability, while the market pretends it’s coming to an end.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.
