Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
Evening Political Roundup, October 29, 2026
In a single day, the State Duma passed three budget bills in their first reading: the oil cut-off price is lowered to $50; spending for 2027 is authorized to exceed the limit by 1.5 trillion rubles; and in the event of security threats, the budget may be drawn up for a single year. In the same package, the minimum wage is decoupled from the median salary, the universal allowance is tied to bank statements, and municipalities will transfer 8% of personal income tax to the regions. Siluanov specified the cost of each inflation point and the budget rates. The IMF called the oil and gas shock the largest since 1974; Israel lost its majority; and the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russians for providing cryptocurrency to North Korea. We’ll break down which oil prices and which war are driving the government to rewrite the budget rule.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
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