Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
Evening Political Roundup, October 31, 2026
Washington has informed its allies in the Gulf of the date of possible new strikes against Iran: November 4, the day after the midterm elections. The Strait of Hormuz saw more than 30 attacks on ships in October—a record for the eight months of the war—and EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas demanded that Moscow not be brought back to the negotiating table. We break down why war and peace are now dictated by the election calendar and what this means for oil, sanctions, and your finances.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.
