Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
First, cheap oil; then, war: Why Trump Needed a Paper Peace
Washington suddenly started talking about peace: negotiators are shuttling between capitals, the president promises that no one will be bombed, and the market happily believed it. We didn’t buy it. Behind all this commotion lies not diplomacy, but a very pragmatic calculation that the White House prefers to keep quiet about. And this calculation follows a strict sequence of moves. Let’s break down why Trump needed a peace pause, what’s wrong with America’s own reserves, and why our forecast regarding the timing of a major war may need to be pushed back—but not canceled.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.
