Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
70 outbreaks and 90,000 cases: what happens in outlying areas when controls break down
Since December, an epizootic outbreak of pasteurellosis has spread to eleven regions; by February, there were seventy outbreaks, and up to 90,000 animals were culled and destroyed. The official explanation is that the bacterium mutated and the vaccine was ineffective. We’ll examine why this explanation is more alarming than the outbreak itself, what has been confirmed by the situation in the Irkutsk Region and what hasn’t, and why public infrastructure will be the next target this winter.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.