"Enough is enough": Kyiv has gotten caught up in someone else's election campaign

In the past week: a diesel deal with Moscow, an “energy truce” that Kyiv learned about from a news report, three days of silence, and a tough interview with Zelenskyy in the Financial Times. These aren’t four separate news stories, but a single narrative pieced together around a single date. I’ll break down who’s scoring political points here, why the strikes on Russian oil refineries have resumed right now, whose decision this actually was—and how it will play out for Zelensky personally. Plus, a comparison with our February forecast regarding the exchange of blows and an answer to the main question: what will begin on November 4.