Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
Immigrants Will Save Russia: Here's What I Based This Prediction On
In August 2025, I wrote that the country would begin to open up and emigrants would start returning. People took the prediction at face value: they assumed it was about labor and money. But it was about people who had learned not to be afraid. I’ll break down all three layers of the prediction—the personnel, economic, and, most importantly, the mental layers—and honestly outline the four conditions under which it won’t come true. This includes the fact that the dynamics of return are currently working in the opposite direction.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.