Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
The draft notices have been sent out: Why this isn't yet a mobilization—and why it's already too late to stop it
I received a draft notice—as someone who completed my military service a long time ago. Not my son, nor my nephew, who is of draft age. Since mid-October, these notices have been arriving en masse, and they’re being sent to people who haven’t been thought of in years. Let’s take a dispassionate look: what this means under the law, why the government needs to know everything about reservists right now, why we shouldn’t expect a high-profile announcement—and what six signs reveal what’s really going on. Two of them have already come to pass.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.