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Cocoa (CC): A Market That Operates on Two Calendars
Cocoa experienced one of the sharpest crashes in the history of commodity markets: from a record high of $12,931.00 per metric ton in December 2024 to $2,846.00 in March 2026. Right now, the market is operating on two different timelines: the outgoing season is closing with a surplus and two-year highs in exchange inventories, while the next season is already being reevaluated in light of the strongest El Niño in 75 years. The new season begins on September 1. Let’s break down what’s behind this contradiction.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.
