Financial Market Analysis & Investment Research Partly open
Coffee (Coffee C, KC): A Record Harvest vs. Empty Warehouses
The global coffee market is operating in two different realities at once. Brazil is harvesting a record crop, while the brokerage firm Marex estimates a surplus of 10.5 million bags for the coming season. At the same time, certified Arabica stocks on the ICE exchange have fallen to approximately 226,000 bags—near a 26-year low. Compounding these factors are an earthquake in Colombia, delays in the Brazilian harvest, and the looming El Niño. We’ll explore why a commodity of which there is “too much” is actually hard to obtain physically today.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.
