Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
Graham's Law Has Been Enacted: Control Has Been Concentrated in a Single Set of Hands. What Will Happen to the Ruble, Oil, and Transit?
The House of Representatives passed the Graham Act: tariffs of up to 500% on Russian goods and up to 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of our oil. Four days ago, we wrote that the noose is tightening not at the borders, but in the banks of transit countries. We’ll break down exactly what was passed, who it will hit first, why the key aspect of the bill isn’t the sanctions themselves but the right not to apply them, and what will happen to the ruble, oil, and the market.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.