Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
Much Ado About Nothing and the Operational Capabilities of Intelligence Agencies
CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow sparked a wave of rumors about an imminent peace agreement. We’ll examine why this contact is more likely a direct testing of red lines than the start of a peace process, and why the market is once again trading on a misleading geopolitical narrative.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.