Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
Riyadh Under Attack: Why the Mecca Pact Won't Save the Day and There Won't Be a War Between Sunnis and Shiites
For the first time in this phase of the war, the Houthis have reached Riyadh; Aramco has halted shipments to European refineries for a month; and the Mecca Pact with Turkey and Pakistan is facing its first test in battle. We answer the key questions: Will Saudi Arabia strike back, and if so, how? Will Ankara intervene? Will Europe get involved? And is a major war between Sunnis and Shiites really beginning? Spoiler: There won’t be a war of religions; there will be a war of infrastructure—it’s more costly.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.