Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
The Calm Before the Next War: Oil Prices Will First Fall, Then Soar Sharply
We warned that the Houthis would advance to Bab el-Mandeb and that oil prices would reach $110. That’s exactly what happened. But buying into a war after a price spike is a mistake. Our next move is the opposite: first, de-escalation and a drop in oil prices, then a new, much more intense round of conflict and a sharp upward reversal in prices. Why the market will be lulled into complacency at first, and where the next phase begins—read on for the rest of the forecast.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.
