The Second 1929: A Crisis That Will End in War

I spent months putting this essay together—it’s the quintessence of everything I’ve come to understand over years of observing the markets, and I’ve bet all my money on this scenario. The stock market crash of 1929 was merely the spark: the catastrophe was caused by four structural errors, three of which are being repeated today almost verbatim. Here’s how it will play out: a sharp drop in oil prices and a rise in the dollar to 120, a deflationary shock, a response via the printing press, an S&P 500 rally to 11,000 points by the end of 2028 — followed by a crash right before the U.S. elections, with a drop to 2,000–3,000 and a gradual decline through 2031, just as after 1929. Next—Russia’s return to the Soviet planned economy model and a series of hybrid wars instead of one major one. With charts, figures, and criteria under which I’ll admit I was wrong.