Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
The smokescreen didn't even last a week: the elections ended, and war returned to Hormuz
The U.S. elections are over—and explosions rang out again in the Strait of Hormuz overnight. For a week, the market celebrated peace, while we wrote that it was all a smokescreen. The smokescreen didn’t even last a week. Let’s break down what was really happening behind the facade of “peace talks,” why the timing of the new strike is by no means coincidental, and what Tehran has promised in response—this time far beyond its own region. We knew it. Now the main question is no longer whether there will be a follow-up, but rather its scale.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.
