USD/KZT: Format retained — scale adjusted

A year ago, we described how capital flows between Russia and Kazakhstan would cause volatility in the Kazakh tenge and mapped out the trajectory of the U.S. dollar/tenge exchange rate. The market has followed this path almost exactly. Now the exchange rate has approached a key zone within its long-term trading range, and the government is launching its largest spending program in years, funded by the National Fund. We’ll examine what this money means for the currency, why the logic of our previous note remains valid, and what the tenge’s performance in terms of gold reveals.