VTB: Testing the par value and 319.4% in gold

The VTB gold forecast, published in June 2023, was fulfilled with a return of 307.8%, and after the synthetic position was adjusted, the cumulative result reached 319.4%. Over the past year, the bank’s shares have fallen below their par value of 50 rubles; the profit target for 2026 has been lowered; the additional share issuance related to the partnership with Wildberries has been postponed; and the capital buffer remains at the regulatory minimum. We’ll analyze what has changed in the wave structure and at what levels the new position is being built.