Geopolitical Risk Analysis & Intelligence
Doomsday economics: Instructions for investment and sanctuary country selection for 2026-2030.
Macrostructure of the Decade: Cyclical Market Analysis from Euphoria to a New Reality
The current decade will go down in history as a period of unprecedented volatility and tectonic shifts in the global macroeconomic structure. Modeling of...
The Pentagon's information vacuum: why covering up losses in the Middle East is preparing a social explosion in the US
The current US military and political strategy is facing a systemic crisis that is carefully masked by official Washington. The White House administration (both Democrats and Donald Trump), together with the country's top military...
Global Conflict as a Driver of Growth: Why the U.S. is Putting the Economy on a War Footing
Pete Heckseth's recent official announcement of a radical increase in arms production and readiness to supply it on an unprecedented scale to all interested parties puts the final point in the formation of the new economic doctrine of the...
The crisis of late personalist autocracy: the transit model and the breakdown of intra-elite consensus
Modern political science classifies what is happening not as a unique phenomenon, but as a natural cycle of disintegration of personalist autocracy (according to Barbara Geddes' classification). Unlike military juntas or one-party...
The regime will ruin what nurtured it: The strategic caution trap
For decades, the foundation of the current Russian government has been political "sneakiness" - a strategy of avoiding sudden movements. Careful tightening of the screws, gradual and almost imperceptible tax increases, elimination of...
Information mirage: why Trump's 'seventh peace' with Iran is doomed to collide with reality
Over the past month and a half, Donald Trump has set a record of sorts by announcing the imminent end of the conflict with Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz at least six times. The other day, the White House went to the press...
Illusion of sustainability and geopolitical deadlock: hidden recession and risks of escalation
Over the past few quarters, the global macroeconomic landscape has shown clear signs of a systemic weakening of the U.S. position. The economy is facing structural barriers, and traditional methods of hedging domestic problems through...
The Illusion of Control: Why Relying on a Mercenary Army is the Main Structural Vulnerability of State Security
The current strategy of the Russian leadership in the military conflict is based on a principled rejection of mass forced mobilization in favor of the creation of a de facto mercenary army. Through unprecedented increases in one-time...
may 15: Postponed finale. Why Trump and Xi's second attempt will be their last
The upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15, 2026 is not a new beginning, but a painful return to thwarted negotiations. We recall that this visit was planned back at the beginning of the year...
Gold as an Ultimatum Asset: Out of System and Out of Control
With the impending transition to a mobilized economy and the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), traditional financial instruments - stocks, bonds and fiat deposits - are transformed into assets with total counterparty...
The decline of the hegemon: Economic deadlock and US geopolitical retreat
Over the past few years, the United States of America has shown clear signs of entering an active phase of systemic destruction. The latest marker of this process is the realization by American society of the failure of attempts at...
Middle East zugzwang: why Trump's 'end of war' is the beginning of phase two
Exactly two months ago, we predicted that by early May the first phase of confrontation in the region would come to its logical conclusion. The events of May 1, 2026 confirmed this scenario with mathematical precision. Donald Trump sent a...
Russian air defense as an imitation, an arsenal without "teeth", and "victory" is not the goal
Introduction
Regular drone raids on Russian regions and selective effectiveness of interceptions show that the countermeasures system works reactively. At the same time, Russia continues to rely on an outdated missile stockpile, without...
