Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
One and a Half Million Bayonets: Why Russia Can't Afford a Second Army
1.5 million new soldiers—that’s not a slogan, but a quantifiable goal. Formally speaking, there are enough men in the country to meet this goal. What’s missing is the money and the manpower. We examined three constraints: demographics, the contract soldier market, and the budget. The conclusion is uncomfortable: such an army cannot be hired; it can only be conscripted. And even conscription would cost nearly twice the annual defense budget.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.
