Political analytics and forecasts Partly open
Sanctions Backfired—on China: How Washington Created a Competitor for ASML with Its Own Hands
China has begun mass production of its own DUV lithography systems: five machines this year, according to Reuters; twelve, according to the Financial Times. ASML’s stock fell on the news, even though the Chinese systems are four generations behind. We’ll examine why the real loss for Western vendors isn’t the 600 million in lost revenue, but rather their monopoly on manufacturing capacity—and what this means for Taiwan.
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- the full set of indicators and market factors;
- an interpretation of the current picture;
- conclusions and the signals that follow.
