Political analytics and forecasts
Modern political science classifies what is happening not as a unique phenomenon, but as a natural cycle of disintegration of personalist autocracy (according to Barbara Geddes' classification). Unlike military juntas or one-party systems,...
Political analytics and forecasts
For decades, the foundation of the current Russian government has been political "sneakiness" - a strategy of avoiding sudden movements. Careful tightening of the screws, gradual and almost imperceptible tax increases, elimination of...
Political analytics and forecasts
Over the past month and a half, Donald Trump has set a record of sorts by announcing the imminent end of the conflict with Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz at least six times. The other day, the White House went to the press...
Political analytics and forecasts
Over the past few quarters, the global macroeconomic landscape has shown clear signs of a systemic weakening of the U.S. position. The economy is facing structural barriers, and traditional methods of hedging domestic problems through...
Political analytics and forecasts
Another tactical maneuver by Donald Trump - the statement about postponing the start of the bombing campaign for two or three days "at the request of the Saudi leadership" - in reality has nothing to do with de-escalation. Behind this...
Political analytics and forecasts
The current strategy of the Russian leadership in the military conflict is based on a principled rejection of mass forced mobilization in favor of the creation of a de facto mercenary army. Through unprecedented increases in one-time...
Political analytics and forecasts
Donald Trump's current rhetoric about U.S. successes in the Iran conflict is an attempt to register a political victory in the face of an impending structural impasse. Loud rhetoric hides the reality that the United States is being held...
Political analytics and forecasts
The upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15, 2026 is not a new beginning, but a painful return to thwarted negotiations. We recall that this visit was planned back at the beginning of the year...
Political analytics and forecasts
The current disposition of forces in the Middle East has ceased to be a mere show of muscle and has entered a phase of critical risk for American military and political dominance. The introduction of U.S. ships and contingents directly...
Political analytics and forecasts
With the impending transition to a mobilized economy and the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), traditional financial instruments - stocks, bonds and fiat deposits - are transformed into assets with total counterparty...
Political analytics and forecasts
Over the past few years, the United States of America has shown clear signs of entering an active phase of systemic destruction. The latest marker of this process is the realization by American society of the failure of attempts at...
Political analytics and forecasts
Exactly two months ago, we predicted that by early May the first phase of confrontation in the region would come to its logical conclusion. The events of May 1, 2026 confirmed this scenario with mathematical precision. Donald Trump sent a...
Statement · январь—апрель 2026 Четыре месяца системной работы на двух рынках За период с 1 января по 30 апреля 2026 года аналитики «Эры Перемен» опубликовали 313 рыночных идей. К моменту подготовки отчёта закрыты 298 сценариев, а сумма...
Ежегодный ГОДОВОЙ ОТЧЕТ 2025: Системный анализ рынка и обзор статистической эффективности Доп. пересказ отчета для тех кто не хочет читать (советуем всем прослушать): Дата: 16 декабря 2025 г. Тема: Всесторонний обзор аналитической...
Political analytics and forecasts
Introduction Regular drone raids on Russian regions and selective effectiveness of interceptions show that the countermeasures system works reactively. At the same time, Russia continues to rely on an outdated missile stockpile, without...
Political analytics and forecasts
Two years ago, when we were discussing possible scenarios for the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war in the public space, many perceived the participation of Poland and other Eastern European countries in the hostilities as an extreme,...
Political analytics and forecasts
Closing borders and political isolation The events of recent months show a growing trend: Poland is closing its borders to Russian citizens, and the European Union is discussing a complete ban on Russians, including tourists. This looks...
Political analytics and forecasts
The events of recent months, be it the clashes in Nepal or the outbreak of protests in Turkey, clearly demonstrate that the digital space is no longer just a sphere of technology. It has become a political arena where the future of both...
Political analytics and forecasts
Introduction If we imagine that the greatest thinkers, religious leaders and political figures of the last three thousand years were to become our contemporaries, we would inevitably face the question: how would their ideas relate to the...
Political analytics and forecasts
Introduction From September 15, Russia and China will launch a visa-free travel regime for up to 30 days. The official pitch is to strengthen friendship and develop tourism. But the experience of other countries where China came through...
