Political analytics and forecasts
The latest data leak from Ksenia Sobchak’s hacked accounts is not just another high-profile scandal or a topic for the gossip columns. For those accustomed to analyzing information systematically, this incident has served as a stark...
Political analytics and forecasts
The notion that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century has become firmly entrenched in public discourse. However, a macroanalysis of the social and political processes of the past...
Political analytics and forecasts
The outcomes of the Istanbul summit mark the West’s definitive shift away from a strategy of “containment through diplomacy” toward a strategy of “mobilization economy” and the direct weakening of the adversary. 1. Military Keynesianism: A...
Political analytics and forecasts
A fuel crisis in one of the world’s largest oil-producing countries seems like an oxymoron, but from the perspective of systems analysis, it is an entirely logical outcome. Undoubtedly, military operations and targeted strikes on oil...
Political analytics and forecasts
A new narrative is actively taking shape in the media to explain the rapidly worsening fuel shortage. A popular conspiracy theory claims that there is no real crisis: the authorities are allegedly artificially creating a fuel shortage to...
Political analytics and forecasts
In the coming months, a key indicator for assessing geopolitical risks will be a qualitative shift in the statements made by senior Russian officials. To predict the next steps in the current conflict, it is necessary to closely monitor...
Political analytics and forecasts
The current fuel crisis in Russia has entered a phase of systemic breakdown. As of early July 2026, restrictions at gas stations had spread to 61 regions, including Siberia and the Far East. Long lines on highways, a ban on filling jerry...
Political analytics and forecasts
The question of “who rules the country” often boils down to a search for simple answers: studying genealogical records, looking for hidden surnames, or analyzing the ethnic composition of cabinets. However, to understand why state...
Political analytics and forecasts
We are on the brink of events that will forever change the reality we know. What now seems to many to be nothing more than background noise in the news risks turning into a veritable historical storm within the next month. The Russian...
Political analytics and forecasts
It would be a mistake to view the current escalation between Washington and Tehran as a chaotic exchange of blows. The dynamics we are observing are a classic macroeconomic and geopolitical strategy of testing pain thresholds. The parties...
Political analytics and forecasts
The end of June 2026 laid bare a critical vulnerability in Russia’s power structure. Events that appear disparate at first glance—from statements by allies to anomalies in commodity markets—are coalescing into a clear trend:...
Political analytics and forecasts
Throughout the history of global financial markets, there has always been a strict rule: prices are dictated by the balance of supply and demand, backed by hard statistics on tanker shipments and inventories. However, the events of June...
Political analytics and forecasts
Our baseline geopolitical and macroeconomic forecast remains valid and is fully corroborated by current developments. However, the way this scenario is actually unfolding is striking in its institutional irrationality. The situation...
Political analytics and forecasts
The current document between the Trump administration and Iran is not a peace treaty, but merely a declaration of intent (the so-called “Islamabad Memorandum”), burdened with conditions that are knowingly impossible to fulfill. The...
Political analytics and forecasts
The initial market reaction to Donald Trump’s statements about the “final end” of the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was predictably impulsive. Oil prices immediately fell on expectations of a recovery in global supplies....
Political analytics and forecasts
How macroeconomic fears, not diplomacy, forced the White House to backtrack just days before the monetary collapse A sharp turnaround In early June 2026, the world stood on the brink of a full-scale war in the Middle East. Western media...
Political analytics and forecasts
The current crisis in the Asian currency markets is no longer a local problem of individual developing countries. The U.S. geopolitical decision to block the Strait of Hormuz provoked a powerful global energy shock, which instantly...
Political analytics and forecasts
Macrostructure of the Decade: Cyclical Market Analysis from Euphoria to a New Reality The current decade will go down in history as a period of unprecedented volatility and tectonic shifts in the global macroeconomic structure. Modeling of...
Political analytics and forecasts
The current US military and political strategy is facing a systemic crisis that is carefully masked by official Washington. The White House administration (both Democrats and Donald Trump), together with the country's top military...
Political analytics and forecasts
Pete Heckseth's recent official announcement of a radical increase in arms production and readiness to supply it on an unprecedented scale to all interested parties puts the final point in the formation of the new economic doctrine of the...
