Political analytics and forecasts
MAIN THESIS Deterrence worked as long as destruction was costly. It is no longer costly The entire architecture of twentieth-century global security rested on a simple economic foundation: to inflict serious damage, a state needs...
Political analytics and forecasts
MAIN THESIS Export restrictions did not stop China. They paid for its entry into the industry The logic behind the sanctions was based on a simple calculation: without Western lithography equipment, China would not be able to manufacture...
Political analytics and forecasts
Bangladesh, August 2024: A student protest against quotas escalated into the overthrow of the government after authorities shut down the internet. By 2030, Russia will invest nearly 59 billion rubles in modernizing traffic filtering...
Political analytics and forecasts
Starting January 1, 2027, the government will be able to see how the price of every item on the shelf is calculated: from the purchase price from the manufacturer to the store’s markup. The law has already been signed. At the same time, an...
Political analytics and forecasts
Tehran's reservoirs have fallen to 12% of their capacity, and Iran's president has warned of a possible partial evacuation of the capital, while 99% of Qatar’s drinking water comes from desalination plants concentrated in a few dozen...
Political analytics and forecasts
In 2026, four American corporations will invest up to $630 billion in artificial intelligence infrastructure—a 62% increase over last year’s record figure. At the same time, Chinese labs are making comparable models freely available and...
Political analytics and forecasts
The South is aging and losing its workforce, while the North sits on trillions’ worth of resources but lacks capital. Economically, the merger looks flawless: technology plus cheap labor equals Asia’s superfactory. Let’s take a serious...
Political analytics and forecasts
The money sitting in accounts in Istanbul, Astana, or Bishkek is indeed dwindling. But not because of a “coordinated package of emergency measures”—which never existed—but because of inflation nearing 30% and the mandatory conversion of a...
Political analytics and forecasts
After banks, real estate, insurance, and stablecoins, the last remaining payment instrument is physical gold. And it, too, is ceasing to function as a universal pass. As of September 1, Russia has restricted the export of gold bars and...
Political analytics and forecasts
USDT and USDC turned out not to be freely available funds, but rather a digital dollar with a freeze button. Tether has already frozen $5.7 billion across 9,500 addresses, and now the freeze takes effect within hours of being added to the...
Political analytics and forecasts
It is not aircraft carriers or customs that bring global trade to a halt. It is the underwriter’s signature in London: without an insurance policy, a ship will not dock, and a truck will not cross the border. We’ll break down how this...
Political analytics and forecasts
One and a half thousand drones in a single night, the largest attack on Moscow since 2022, and the Kremlin’s promise to retaliate. On the same day, the DPR gives “United Russia” more than 80% of the vote, while the Moscow Exchange Index...
Political analytics and forecasts
The accounts have already been audited, and so have the companies. What remains is the concrete reality: an apartment by the sea that can’t be shut down with the click of a mouse. Starting July 10, 2026, the EU will open access to...
Political analytics and forecasts
For the first time in this phase of the war, the Houthis have reached Riyadh; Aramco has suspended shipments to European refineries for a month; and the Mecca Pact with Turkey and Pakistan is facing its first test in combat. We answer the...
Political analytics and forecasts
American neobanks are closing accounts held by companies with foreign owners. The reason isn’t data leaks or a conspiracy: the regulator has shifted responsibility for the customer from the fintech company to the sponsoring bank, and the...
Political analytics and forecasts
The House of Representatives passed the Graham Act: tariffs of up to 500% on Russian goods and up to 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of our oil. Four days ago, we wrote that the noose is tightening not at the borders, but in the...
Political analytics and forecasts
A secret isn’t something mystical—it’s an asset. While some people are trying to decipher the symbols on magazine covers, others are calmly figuring out who got the money. We’ll break down the mechanics of information inequality and the...
Political analytics and forecasts
1.5 million new soldiers—that’s not a slogan, but a quantifiable goal. Formally speaking, the country has enough men to meet this goal. What it lacks is money and manpower. We examined three constraints: demographics, the contract soldier...
Political analytics and forecasts
A trade bridge between geopolitical blocs may remain open on the map—but cease to function within the banking system. Why Turkey, the UAE, and Central Asia risk paying the price for their multi-vector approach, and what this means for...
Political analytics and forecasts
AI promises to free humans from routine tasks. But what will happen if, along with routine tasks, we hand over to it our ability to understand the world? An original scenario spanning twenty years: from cognitive stratification to an...
