Political analytics and forecasts
With the impending transition to a mobilized economy and the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), traditional financial instruments - stocks, bonds and fiat deposits - are transformed into assets with total counterparty...
Political analytics and forecasts
Over the past few years, the United States of America has shown clear signs of entering an active phase of systemic destruction. The latest marker of this process is the realization by American society of the failure of attempts at...
Political analytics and forecasts
Exactly two months ago, we predicted that by early May the first phase of confrontation in the region would come to its logical conclusion. The events of May 1, 2026 confirmed this scenario with mathematical precision. Donald Trump sent a...
Political analytics and forecasts
Introduction Regular drone raids on Russian regions and selective effectiveness of interceptions show that the countermeasures system works reactively. At the same time, Russia continues to rely on an outdated missile stockpile, without...
Political analytics and forecasts
Two years ago, when we were discussing possible scenarios for the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war in the public space, many perceived the participation of Poland and other Eastern European countries in the hostilities as an extreme,...
Political analytics and forecasts
Closing borders and political isolation The events of recent months show a growing trend: Poland is closing its borders to Russian citizens, and the European Union is discussing a complete ban on Russians, including tourists. This looks...
Political analytics and forecasts
The events of recent months, be it the clashes in Nepal or the outbreak of protests in Turkey, clearly demonstrate that the digital space is no longer just a sphere of technology. It has become a political arena where the future of both...
Political analytics and forecasts
Introduction If we imagine that the greatest thinkers, religious leaders and political figures of the last three thousand years were to become our contemporaries, we would inevitably face the question: how would their ideas relate to the...
Political analytics and forecasts
Introduction From September 15, Russia and China will launch a visa-free travel regime for up to 30 days. The official pitch is to strengthen friendship and develop tourism. But the experience of other countries where China came through...
Political analytics and forecasts
Recession is a word that economists use cautiously, because it means not just a "slowdown in growth" but a sustained downturn. The classic definition is two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. But in reality, recession manifests itself...
Political analytics and forecasts
Another SCO summit took place in Tianjin. Formally - a meeting for the sake of "peace, stability and cooperation". In reality, it is a parade of states that in one way or another depend on China. This is not the "Shanghai Cooperation...
Political analytics and forecasts
Entry: what happened on September 1 On September 1, 2025, two key sets of amendments come into force: Federal Law No. 72-FZ (07.04.2025)Bans any advertising on Internet resources recognized in Russia as extremist, undesirable or terrorist....
Political analytics and forecasts
1. Historical Model: Moscow vs. Moscow Region Over the past decades, Moscow has grown and prospered, actually "sucking" resources from the Moscow region. People: residents of the region traveled en masse to work in the capital, leaving...
Political analytics and forecasts
You and I have already repeatedly talked about the fact that modern politics is, first and foremost, economics. Yes, we can simplify it by explaining it to "newcomers" through examples of individual events and "marks", but this is not...
Political analytics and forecasts
Introduction The introduction of troops into the streets of Russian cities is an extreme step of the authorities. It does not arise "out of nowhere," but becomes a continuation of a systemic crisis. It is important to understand why the...
