Political analytics and forecasts
A secret isn’t something mystical—it’s an asset. While some people are trying to decipher the symbols on magazine covers, others are calmly figuring out who got the money. We’ll break down the mechanics of information inequality and the...
Political analytics and forecasts
1.5 million new soldiers—that’s not a slogan, but a quantifiable goal. Formally speaking, the country has enough men to meet this goal. What it lacks is money and manpower. We examined three constraints: demographics, the contract soldier...
Political analytics and forecasts
A trade bridge between geopolitical blocs may remain open on the map—but cease to function within the banking system. Why Turkey, the UAE, and Central Asia risk paying the price for their multi-vector approach, and what this means for...
Political analytics and forecasts
AI promises to free humans from routine tasks. But what will happen if, along with routine tasks, we hand over to it our ability to understand the world? An original scenario spanning twenty years: from cognitive stratification to an...
Political analytics and forecasts
We warned that the Houthis would advance to Bab el-Mandeb and that oil prices would reach $110. That’s exactly what happened. But buying into the war after such a price spike is a mistake. Our next move is the opposite: first,...
Political analytics and forecasts
Control technologies already exist individually: biometrics, software-defined transportation, digital currency, automated access to services, and reliance on cloud infrastructure. The main risk for 2027–2030 is their integration into a...
Political analytics and forecasts
CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow sparked a wave of rumors about an imminent peace agreement. We’ll examine why this contact is more likely a direct clarification of red lines than the start of a peace process, and why the...
Political analytics and forecasts
Decree No. 604 does not formally nationalize private companies. However, it authorizes the transfer of de facto control over assets, shares, and property rights to the state or another designated administrator—without a time limit...
Political analytics and forecasts
Reports of serious complications and dog deaths following vaccination, the recall of the 20th batch of “Multikana-8,” and the suspension of distribution of several other batches have turned this veterinary incident into a test for the...
Political analytics and forecasts
War is entering a jet-powered phase: new strike UAVs are reducing air defense reaction times and raising the cost of interception. The real turning point is not a single weapon, but the massive combination of drones, missiles, aerial...
Political analytics and forecasts
The global market isn’t disappearing, but price no longer guarantees access. MacroGuard analyzes how the energy, food, and infrastructure crises will unfold differently in Russia, the U.S., Europe, Turkey, Asia, and other regions. Inside:...
Political analytics and forecasts
As we noted earlier, the protracted conflicts in the Middle East and the ongoing sabotage of deep-sea logistics have completely depleted the superpowers’ weapons stockpiles. The U.S., Iran, and their allies are mired in a stalemate that...
Political analytics and forecasts
To summarize our in-depth analysis of geopolitical and macroeconomic trends, we can conclude that we have entered a period of fundamental upheaval in the existing world order. Current conflicts are not merely localized crises, but rather...
Political analytics and forecasts
The information has been confirmed: On August 10, 2026, the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation granted the “Rodina” party’s petition and revoked the registration of the “Yabloko” party’s federal slate for the upcoming State Duma...
Political analytics and forecasts
Yesterday, August 7, 2026, an event took place in Mecca that could significantly alter the security architecture in the Middle East: Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan signed a trilateral mutual defense treaty. For a thorough macroanalysis...
Political analytics and forecasts
We have grown accustomed to the idea that the stability of our world is guaranteed by the unbreakable power of the superpowers. But the events of the past few days have laid bare a frightening reality: that power turned out to be a bluff....
Political analytics and forecasts
If you thought that by moving to a “neutral” country you had left the state apparatus behind, the latest geopolitical reports are in for a rude awakening. The main trend of the past few days has been an unprecedented level of transnational...
Political analytics and forecasts
The main political trend of the past 24 hours has been a sharp, coordinated attack by governments on their own citizens’ freedom of movement. Analyzing legislative initiatives and customs reports from Europe to Asia, it becomes clear: the...
Political analytics and forecasts
The history of nations rarely follows a straight path—more often, it is shaped by trajectories dictated by unresolved institutional problems. When analyzing the transformation of the Russian Federation over the past three decades, it is...
Political analytics and forecasts
What was originally conceived as a swift three-day campaign has ultimately transformed into a protracted war of attrition, with the theater of operations now fully extended into the territory of the Russian Federation. The geography and...
