Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today Trump announced a deal with Russia on diesel fuel suppliesAccording to Trump, Putin agreed to “immediately” release 300,000 metric tons of diesel onto the global market, followed by 500,000 metric tons in...
Political analytics and forecasts
When I wrote that emigrants would save Russia, almost everyone misunderstood me. They assumed I was talking about money and labor. But I was talking about something else—about people who have learned not to be afraid. The time has come to...
Political analytics and forecasts
The day when war ceased to be an external circumstance and became a line item in the budget, a clause in a verdict, and an argument in international law. We’ll break down the key points, summarize the main ideas, and briefly cover the...
Political analytics and forecasts
On the night of October 8, a drone struck the Yandex data center in Sasovo, Ryazan Region. A fire broke out, and operations at the site have been completely suspended. There were no injuries. The company stated that it cannot yet confirm...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda TodayThe Bank of Russia has established that a group of affiliated organizations and their owners manipulated the bond marketAccording to the regulator, SILACh Plant LLC, OKTAD LLC, SITERRA LLC, and their owners,...
Political analytics and forecasts
The escape plan seems reasonable. City life is all about dependence: water from the tap, heat on a schedule, money from a card, and food from chain stores that rely on deliveries. The countryside is autonomy: your own well, your own...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's on the Agenda TodayThe National Financial Council held a meetingThe NFC reviewed draft versions of the Main Directions of the Unified State Monetary Policy and the Main Directions for Financial Market Development for 2027 and the...
Political analytics and forecasts
MAIN THESIS Failures are no longer isolated incidents. This is a sign of a systemic problem, not a random one A single failure is a coincidence. A series of failures of the same type within a single year is a characteristic of the system....
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda TodaySheremetyevo is temporarily not accepting or dispatching flightsOvernight, Rosaviatsiya imposed temporary restrictions on aircraft arrivals and departures at Sheremetyevo; according to Interfax, Vnukovo and...
Political analytics and forecasts
Dear customers and subscribers! Banks in Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian countries have begun to massively reject SWIFT transfers to and from Russian citizens. Rejections are occurring even in cases where the connection to Russia is...
Political analytics and forecasts
MAIN THESIS Deterrence worked as long as destruction was costly. It is no longer costly The entire architecture of twentieth-century global security rested on a simple economic foundation: to inflict serious damage, a state needs...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda TodayThe International Chamber of Commerce estimates that grain prices could rise by up to 80%Restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have affected nearly 40% of global fertilizer trade, said John...
Political analytics and forecasts
MAIN THESIS Export restrictions did not stop China. They paid for its entry into the industry The logic behind the sanctions was based on a simple calculation: without Western lithography equipment, China would not be able to manufacture...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Shaping the Agenda TodayThe U.S. has allowed for the imposition of secondary sanctions against Russia’s partners by October 18U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that Washington is “exploring all available levers” of pressure...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda TodayUnder U.S. pressure, the G7 is releasing 100 million barrels of oil and dieselThe G7 announced it would release up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from its reserves over the next four months to bring...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today: Friedman has limited access to assets, despite the lifting of sanctionsAccording to the agency’s information, cited by TASS, 37.9% is held by the multinational investment firm LetterOne, headquartered in...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Shaping the Agenda TodayElectricity transmission tariffs in Russia have risen by 15.2% since October, while those for the Unified Energy Grid have increased by 16%The tariff for electricity transmission via the Unified National...
Political analytics and forecasts
Bangladesh, August 2024: A student protest against quotas escalated into the overthrow of the government after authorities shut down the internet. By 2030, Russia will invest nearly 59 billion rubles in modernizing traffic filtering...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Shaping the Agenda TodayThe Bank of Russia has submitted a draft of the “Main Directions of Monetary Policy for 2027–2029” to the State DumaIn this strategic document, the regulator explains its approaches to monetary policy and...
Political analytics and forecasts
Starting January 1, 2027, the government will be able to see how the price of every item on the shelf is calculated: from the purchase price from the manufacturer to the store’s markup. The law has already been signed. At the same time, an...
