Political analytics and forecasts
There are statements that are significant not for their content, but for who makes them and when. On October 22, the Israeli prime minister appeared on a business news channel and asked for a plan to be drawn up to circumvent international...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today Wall Street acknowledges: the main risk to the Fed’s interest rate decisions is now oil, not AI. Jonathan Golub, chief equity strategist at Seaport Research Partners, said on Bloomberg This Weekend that a...
Political analytics and forecasts
The picture over the past two weeks looks like a move toward peace. A phone call, a fuel deal, a special envoy in St. Petersburg, talks of a ceasefire. All of this paints a convenient picture: Trump applied pressure, the sides are sitting...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Shaping the Agenda Today The Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 14% and raised its annual inflation forecast to 7.1–7.6%. The decision was in line with the consensus, but the tone of the statement was harsher than expected....
Political analytics and forecasts
What's on the Agenda Today The Bank of Russia revoked the license of the non-bank credit organization “Tydon” from Kemerovo: ranked 355th in terms of assets and completely insolvent. By Order No. OD-1864 dated October 22, the regulator...
Political analytics and forecasts
On the air, this is presented as protests against budget cuts. Schoolchildren, labor unions, wages, fuel prices. The surface level is described correctly—and yet it completely obscures the essence of the matter. What began in Europe this...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today Putin and Whitcoff confirmed in Moscow that the diesel deal with the U.S. has entered the implementation phase. According to Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov, during Wednesday’s talks, the parties separately...
Political analytics and forecasts
What’s Setting the Agenda Today "System Operator" forecasts a 2.9% increase in energy consumption in 2027, but has itself cut its long-term plan by nearly 60 billion kWh. Fyodor Opadchiy, head of the “System Operator,” presented a forecast...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Shaping the Agenda Today Trump has suspended sanctions against Russia in exchange for cheap diesel and is putting pressure on Kyiv. On Friday, the U.S. president notified Congress that he was putting sanctions under the “Graham Act”...
Political analytics and forecasts
I received a summons. Not for my son, nor for my nephew of draft age—but for me, a man who served a long time ago and has been quietly listed in the reserves all these years. The wording is standard: to appear for the verification of...
Political analytics and forecasts
Europe’s political landscape is in turmoil. Mass protests in Paris, strikes in a number of other European capitals, and electoral upheavals such as the success of “Alternative for Germany” in regional elections—all these are symptoms of a...
Political analytics and forecasts
Over the course of a week, we’ve witnessed events that are usually spread out across various news stories: a diesel deal, the “energy truce” that Kyiv learned about from a news article, a three-day pause in the attacks—and Zelenskyy’s...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today Putin: Russia has joined the ranks of the top 20 food suppliers to global markets. Over the past ten years, the country has increased its food exports by a factor of 2.5. That same day, at the “Business...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today The Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) has proposed raising Transneft’s oil pipeline tariffs by 4.99% effective January 1, 2027. The draft order has been published, and the same rate of increase is proposed...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today The State Duma approved the 2025 budget execution with a deficit of 5.63 trillion rubles. Note the wording: it did not “adopt a budget with a deficit,” but rather approved its execution. The money has been...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today Trump announced an “energy truce” between Russia and UkraineOn Sunday, Trump unexpectedly announced an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine, which, he said, “takes effect immediately.” Kyiv, it appears,...
Political analytics and forecasts
I’m writing to you not as an editorial team, but personally—because this is about something that will affect everyone who uses the internet in Russia. It’s better to find out about this in advance than when you urgently need to log in to...
Political analytics and forecasts
In just one day, two of our predictions came true—the February one and the September one. In Riyadh, a rocket struck the passenger terminal: twelve dead, three hundred and nine wounded. In Washington, Trump announced an “energy truce”...
Political analytics and forecasts
What's Setting the Agenda Today Attack on Riyadh Airport: 12 Dead and More Than 300 InjuredAn attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday claimed the lives of 12 people and left more than 300 injured; according to the...
Political analytics and forecasts
Trump asked Putin for diesel fuel. Putin agreed. A day later, the U.S. Treasury Department lifted the restrictions. Optimists are already talking about a détente and imminent peace. Let’s break down what’s actually on the table—and why...
